Long-term evolution of energy and electricity demand forecasting: The case of Ethiopia

Long-term energy demand forecasting is crucial for any country, in particular developing countries with rapid developments of needs. This study focuses on Ethiopia, a country highly increasing resulting mainly from the currently low share electricity access, development industrial parks, extensive expansion railway network, irrigation schemes agriculture, new cement and sugar factories, housing projects, power export plan to neighboring countries, etc. These all are top 2.7% average population growth. In this study, Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System (LEAP) used explore different possible futures also forecast long-term requirements Ethiopia. The planning period 33 years 2018 2050. employs six scenarios unfold future evolution. developed Business-As-Usual (BAU), Growth Electrification Urbanization (E&U), High Economic (HEG) three policy-driven, Improved Efficiency (IEE-1, IEE-2 IEE-3) scenarios. pathways represented by these can show maximum expected rise under drivers best-case saving opportunities. model estimate associated greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.